Where Did I Go? A Blogger's Sin
I committed a blogger's mortal sin-- I was silent for nearly eight weeks. My apologies but I had a good cause, a very serious lung infection that put me on the sidelines all the way up to the holidays. I haven't been sick like that since I was a kid. My apologies but I did learn something valuable: that Mike's Hard Berry Lemonade mixed with hot water makes for a very tasty cough suppressant.
Kenya Violence-- What the Press/CNN is Missing
The reports out of Kenya in the disputed election-- the deaths, burning churches, riots in the slums-- paint a bleak picture, one of absolute chaos and meltdown (CNN has called Kenya an "orgy of violence"). While that might be eye-catching copy, it distorts the reality on the ground. There is a section in the rural areas in the Rift Valley in the western part of the country where much of the horrific violence is taking place. But talking with our people in Kenya, many of the towns and cities are peaceful and businesses and banks are open and people are going to work. Yes, Nairobi is shut down due to the Kibera neighborhood violence (700,000 people live in Kibera, a poverty-stricken area of several square miles). There are violent outbreaks in the northwest towns around Eldoret, another poverty-stricken area. It's bad in places. Very bad. But it isn't horrific everywhere.
And this is where the Western press is myopic and is missing the story of Kenya-- that this isn't a tribal issue, it is pure (and actually pretty basic) discrimination, and discrimination is part-parcel that comes with democracy and capitalism. When you think Nairobi, think Detroit and Cleveland and Philadelphia in the 1960s and 1970s. Poverty in the face of prosperity where there is legitimate discrimination produces resentment that, if not dealt with, will boil over into violence and destruction.
The discrimination at force in Kenya is basically the caste system-- yes, there are tribal elements but Kenya has over 40 tribes, so it isn't like Rwanda of one tribe versus one other. What my wife and I have experienced in Kenya is that the powerful and prosperous Kikuyu's often do look down upon "lesser" tribes. One of our business partners in Kenya is Kikuyu and she is very prejudiced about other tribes, but those prejudices are based in economics and education, not simple tribal membership. One must understand that after independence from British rule, the presidents and leaders of Kenya were mostly from Kikuyu and a handful of other tribes-- and they ensured preferential treatment was provided for this "upper caste" of these few tribes. For example, tuition to university was free, international study visas were almost exclusive to the upper castes; and that produced a divided generation of educated and uneducated, connected and unconnected, the very wealthy and the very poor. Does this sound familiar? If it doesn't, ask any African American over the age of 50 if it sounds familiar to them. Burning churches? Yes, America had a few of those too not long ago and yes, women and children were killed. Displaced people, refugee camps? In America, we call them reservations and oh, by the way, we didn't let those "displaced people" go back home.
Democracy often wanders from the path of justice often with horrific consequences but what makes democracy great is its ability to find that path again. Throughout history-- especially America's history-- democracy has produced preferential treatment among racial and socioeconomic lines; and there are ebbs and flows of justice and oppression. But Kenya is becoming a modern democracy and she will find her path to justice. Even if the election results are overturned and ODM candidate Odinga is installed, the economy and civil processes of Kenya will likely change some but not significantly. What will change significantly is the perception of equality-- something that does need to change. In fact, Odinga is said to be friendlier to the US and Europe investment than current President Kibaki. The O in his ODM party stands for the Orange movement, which came out of Ukraine, a country fast becoming a case-study in transformational democracy. If Kibaki remains in office, he'll likely have to create power-sharing agreements and implement empowerment policies. My prediction for Kenya is Psalm 30: though weeping stays for a night, Joy cometh in the morning.
It's the old adage: crisis produces the opportunity for change, and while the manner of Kenya's conflict is troubling and the deaths horrific, we can't ignore that America became stronger after it healed from its own horrific injustices. Don't write off Kenya yet. It's simply undemocratic to do so.
Prognostication: Coffee-- still heading up and time to play with Gold again
Well, my coffee predictions came true. Prices for AA and AB grade coffee beans spiked in late November and December despite increase in crop production, and I think a new range is about to be established. Coffee futures are heading up and I think that trend will continue, which makes me think PEET's could be the sufferer. Additionally, their "master roaster" has left to start his own business. I think PEET's probably has another quarter of satisfying profits but the first cracks of the "coffee crunch" will likely show up soon as prices for high-end coffee will likely keep heading up, a trend I don't see abating yet. Kenya is a high-end coffee producer so the current troubles will have an additional effect, but more worrisome is the coffee plant disease that has hit the country. Vietnam and Asia producers will also likely suffer from La Nina effects. I don't think it will be catastrophic but the pinch will produce a new floor and an open ceiling for a bit. This isn't about a pinch in supply as it is a rise in production costs-- the era of cheap coffee is over.
Also, I think it's time to play with Gold again. One of my tripwires of the US economy was tripped today with unemployment figures hitting 5%. I think there will be a run again on liquid vehicles and gold (silver too) will be in demand. I'd look at over $950 for gold in the next 90 days. It had a strong run up year end but I think that's just the beginning. It's what I call the Jed Clampett effect-- that "liquid gold" (oil prices) will override the strengthening US dollar and allow gold another breakout. If you look back in my blog, you'll see an good track record on this prediction-- including the "pause" in the fall over $800.
What's Next?
I'm heading back to Africa as soon as possible-- probably February. I've been working on setting up the investment firm the past three months and I'm anxious to get back over there and source more opportunities and make new friends. Kenya will likely be on my agenda. Good news is we're about ready to start taking in serious investment dollars. It's a great time to be doing what I'm doing. We had a meeting in early December of the capital-players and that team is starting to gel and that's great to see.
I'll have a new prognostication next week but here's something to bring a smile...
Humor Stuff
Amazon.com to Replace Kindle with New Device: Announcing the new Built-in Orderly Organized Knowledge device, otherwise known as the BOOK.
It's a revolutionary breakthrough in technology: no wires, no electric circuits, no batteries, nothing to be connected or switched on. It's so easy to use even a child can operate it. Just lift its cover. Compact and portable, it can be used anywhere -- even sitting in an armchair by the fire -- yet it is powerful enough to hold as much information as a CD-ROM disk.
Here's how it works: each BOOK is constructed of sequentially numbered sheets of paper (recyclable), each capable of holding thousands of bits of information. These pages are locked together with a custom-fit device called a binder which keeps the sheets in their correct sequence. By using both sides of each sheet, manufacturers are able to cut costs in half.
Each sheet is scanned optically, registering information directly into your brain. A flick of the finger takes you to the next sheet. The BOOK may be taken up at any time and used by merely opening it. The "Browse" feature allows you to move instantly to any sheet, and move forward or backward as you wish. Most come with an "index" feature, which pinpoints the exact location of any selected information for instant retrieval.
An optional "BOOKmark" accessory allows you to open the BOOK to the exact place you left it in a previous session -- even if the BOOK has been closed. BOOKmarks fit universal design standards; thus a single BOOKmark can be used in BOOKs by various manufacturers.
Portable, durable and affordable, the BOOK is the entertainment wave of the future, and many new titles are expected soon, due to the surge in popularity of its programming tool, the Portable Erasable-Nib Cryptic Intercommunication Language stylus [PENCIL]
